The final week of Stage 3 of the Overwatch League is starting this Wednesday and there are only 12 more matches to be played before we find out who will be playing in the Title Matches. As usual, this week is full of excellent betting opportunities but before I start analyzing them, let’s take a look at the standings.

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Current standings table

  • 1st place: Boston Uprising (8 WINS – 0 LOSSES)
  • 2nd place: New York Excelsior (7 WINS – 1 LOSS)
  • 3rd place: Los Angeles Valiant (6 WINS – 2 LOSSES)
  • 4th place: Los Angeles Gladiators (5 WINS – 3 LOSSES)
  • 5th place: Houston Outlaws (4 WINS – 4 LOSSES)
  • 6th place: Philadelphia Fusion (4 WINS – 4 LOSSES)
  • 7th place: Seoul Dynasty (4 WINS – 4 LOSSES)
  • 8th place: San Francisco Shock (4 WINS – 4 LOSSES)
  • 9th place: London Spitfire (3 WINS – 5 LOSSES)
  • 10th place: Florida Mayhem (2 WINS – 6 LOSSES)
  • 11th place: Dallas Fuel (1 WIN – 7 LOSSES)
  • 12th place: Shanghai Dragons (0 WINS – 8 LOSSES)

Betting predictions

Philadelphia Fusion (4 W – 4 L) vs. Dallas Fuel (1 W – 7 L)

Match date: May 2nd
Odds: to be announced

Philadelphia Fusion is currently sitting at number 6 in the standings table with 4 wins and 4 losses. After its 2nd place finish in Stage 2, I think people expected more out of Philadelphia Fusion for this stage. Its losses against Boston Uprising and New York Excelsior are mostly justified, but its defeats against San Francisco Shock and Seoul Dynasty were a massive disappointment. Going into week 5, Philadelphia Fusion will likely win the first match against Dallas Fuel but the second one (against Los Angeles Valiant) will be much harder.

With the exception of Shanghai Dragons, a team that doesn’t really count at this point simply because it has lost every single match it has played so far, every other opponent bested Dallas Fuel in a pretty convincing manner. At this point, there’s absolutely nothing the roster can do to catch up. Some transfers and a complete reinvention of its playstyle are an absolute must going forward, if Fuel wants to change its current situation.
No matter what statistics you want to look at, Philadelphia Fusion is a much stronger team than Dallas Fuel at this point and will likely win this match without losing more than one map.

Betting prediction: Philadelphia Fusion to win.

Florida Mayhem (2 W – 6 L) vs. Los Angeles Gladiators (5 W – 3 L)

Match date: May 2nd
Odds: to be announced

Just like Dallas Fuel, Florida Mayhem is continuing the trend that it has already established in Stage 1 (1 W – 9 L) and Stage 2 (3 W – 7L). Overall, it’s pretty clear that this is one of the weakest squads in OWL and there’s not much that can be done to change that fact. Florida Mayhem’s only two successes in this stage have been obtained against Shanghai Dragons and Dallas Fuel. In all likelihood, Mayhem will end Stage 3 with a record of 2 wins and 8 losses.

Los Angeles Gladiators could have done a better job in Stage 3, but the team has certainly been quite unlucky, as two of its defeats were very close (score 2 – 3) and came against top league opponents (New York Excelsior and Los Angeles Valiant). On the other hand, Gladiators also had some excellent results against Seoul Dynasty, London Spitfire and Houston Outlaws. Overall, Los Angeles Gladiators is a probably a stronger team than its current league position suggests.

Los Angeles Gladiators is a vastly better team than Florida Mayhem and this fact is supported by head to head statistics (2 – 0), recent form statistics as well as overall statistics throughout the entire Overwatch League.

Betting prediction: Los Angeles Gladiators to win.

Houston Outlaws (4 W – 4 L) vs. San Francisco Shock (4 W – 4 L)

Match date: May 2nd
Odds: to be announced

Apart from Boston Uprising, who completely destroyed them, Houston Outlaws got close defeats against strong teams (2 -3 against New York Excelsior, Philadelphia Fusion and Los Angeles Gladiators) and decent victories against the weaker teams. It also got two excellent results against London Spitfire and Los Angeles Valiant, clearly suggesting that you should never discard them as a weak side.

Along with Boston Uprising, this team played much better than usual in the first few weeks of Stage 3 but has lost its momentum since then and is now sitting at number 8 in the rankings table. San Francisco Shock’s defeats came against very strong teams (Los Angeles Valiant, Seoul Dynasty, New York Excelsior and London Spitfire), while 2 of its victories were obtained against fairly strong sides (Los Angeles Gladiators and Philadelphia Fusion).

Given that Houston Outlaws is on an upward trend while San Francisco Shock is in full decline, Outlaws will almost certainly win this match.

Betting prediction: Houston Outlaws to win.

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