The Group Stage of EPICENTER XL is almost over and there are only six more matches to be played.
These matches offer excellent betting opportunities, but before we start our analysis, let’s have a look at the current standings.
EPICENTER XL Standings
- 1st place: Team Liquid (4 W – 0 L)
- 2nd place: PSG.LGD (3 W – 1 L)
- 3rd place: Mineski (2 W – 2 L)
- 4th place: FlyToMoon (2 W – 2 L)
- 5th place: compLexity Gaming (1 W – 3 L)
- 6th place: Team Empire (0 W – 4 L)
- 1st place: Virtus.pro (3 W – 1 L)
- 2nd place: OG (3 W – 1 L)
- 3rd place: Team Secret (2 W – 2 L)
- 4th place: Natus Vincere (2 W – 2 L)
- 5th place: Newbee (1 W – 3 L)
- 6th place: paiN Gaming (1 W – 3 L)
Keep in mind that the top two teams from each group advance to the first round of upper bracket matches, the next two teams advance to the first round of lower bracket matches, while the last two teams are eliminated.
Betting predictions for Day 5 (May 2nd)
Team Liquid (4 W – 0 L) vs. Mineski (2 W – 2 L)
Team Liquid is currently sitting at number 2 in the Dota Pro Circuit rakings table with 4734 points. Liquid hasn’t been at the top of its game recently, but it certainly seems to be making a comeback at EPICENTER XL. Apparently, having won the previous two editions of the tournament is working wonders for Kuro and his teammates.
So far in Group A, Team Liquid won every single match. They defeated Team Empire, PSG.LGD, FlyToMoon and compLexity Gaming.
After winning the Dota 2 Asia Championships 2018 Major, Mineski seems to have lost some of its momentum and its understanding of the current meta is not top notch yet. Mineski is still one of the world’s best teams, sitting at number 4 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table with 3150 points. However, until they adapt to the latest patches, Mineski will likely get mixed results and lose most of its matches against the top contenders.
At EPICENTER XL, Mineski is currently sitting in 3rd place in Group A with 2 wins and 2 losses.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -185.19/+155 in favor of Team Liquid, assessing the situation correctly based on what we’ve seen so far at this event.
Betting prediction: Team Liquid to win.
Newbee (1 W – 3 L) vs. OG (3 W – 1 L)
In spite of sitting at number 5 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table with 2220 points, Newbee has looked surprisingly weak so far compared to the other teams. In the first 4 days of EPICENTER XL, Newbee only won one match (against Na’Vi). With a 1 W – 3 L record, Newbee’s chances of qualifying for the Playoffs are minimal.
OG is sitting at the exact opposite side of the spectrum, being ranked number 2 in Group B and having defeated teams like Natus Vincere and Team Secret. It seems that all OG needed to make a comeback was to put s4 in the mid lane and let 7ckngMad play offlane.
Going into this match, OG is much more likely to win than Newbee.
Bovada puts the odds at +125 / -158.73 in favor of OG, giving Newbee a lot of respect in spite of its poor recent form.
Betting prediction: OG to win.
Natus Vincere (2 W – 2 L) vs. paiN Gaming (1 W – 3 L)
Like OG, Natus Vincere has played much better than people expected during the Group Stage of EPICENTER XL.
Dendi’s squad got 2 amazing victories against Team Secret and Virtus.pro, but also lost against OG and Newbee. Still, overall the team looked pretty strong and should definitely win this next match against paiN Gaming.
PaiN Gaming only has one win so far, against Newbee, and 3 losses, against Virtus.pro, Team Secret and OG. It looks like the South American team is still quite far away from the world’s best in terms of skill.
Going into this match, I fully expect Natus Vincere to win as long as it plays the same style of Dota as it has until now.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -212.77/+170 in favor of Natus Vincere, giving paiN Gaming a lot of credit for its modest but still better than expected performance at this tournament.
Betting prediction: Natus Vincere to win.
PSG.LGD (3 W – 1 L) vs. compLexity Gaming (1 W – 3 L)
Apart from Team Liquid, PSG.LGD seems to be the strongest team at EPICENTER XL. It was also the finalist of the latest Dota Pro Circuit Major, Dota 2 Asia Championships 2018. In the first 4 days of EPICENTER XL, PSG.LGD got 3 wins against Mineski, FlyToMoon and Team Empire and one loss against Team Liquid.
CompLexity Gaming has been struggling throughout the Group Stage and is now one loss away from elimination.
The team won a single match against Team Empire, and lost 3 others against Team Liquid, Mineski and FlyToMoon.
Regardless of what statistics you want to look at, PSG.LGD is vastly stronger than compLexity Gaming at this point.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -588.24/+395 in favor of PSG.LGD, anticipating an easy match for the Chinese team.
Betting prediction: PSG.LGD to win.
Virtus.pro (3 W – 1 L) vs. Team Secret (2 W – 2 L)
This is a battle of two giants but surprisingly enough, only one of them has looked strong so far at this event. Virtus.pro got 3 victories against paiN Gaming (2 – 1) and Newbee (2 – 1) and OG and one close defeat against Natus Vincere (1 – 2). VP is currently sitting at number 1 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table with almost 8000 points. However, it’s still trying to adapt to the latest patches and is not exactly at the top of its game.
Team Secret, another top 3 team within the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, has managed to lose two matches against two underdogs (Natus Vincere and OG), and is now being ranked 3rd in Group B with 2 wins and 2 losses.
Going into this match, Virtus.pro should ultimately win against Secret, even though the confrontation will likely span over 3 games.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -185.19/+140 in favor of Virtus.pro and considering just how strong VP is right now compared to Team Secret, this is probably the best betting opportunity on this list.
Betting prediction: Virtus.pro to win.
FlyToMoon (2 W – 2 L) vs. Team Empire (0 W – 4 L)
In spite of being formed just 2 months ago and lacking notable results at previous international competitions, FlyToMoon has proven itself to be a very strong CIS team that can go head to head with any opponent. During the Group Stage of EPICENTER XL, FlyToMoon won against compLexity Gaming (2 – 0) and Mineski (2 – 1) but lost against Team Liquid (2 – 1) and PSG.LGD (2 – 0).
On the other side, Team Empire seems to be in complete disarray right now. This CIS squad has certainly failed to adapt to the new patches and has lost every single match so far in Group A. What’s worse, the defeats were pretty crushing for the most part and Team Empire managed to win a single game out of the 9 they played in total.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -263.16/+205 in favor of FlyToMoon, recognizing the huge skill difference between these two teams at the moment.
Betting prediction: FlyToMoon to win.